Perps + prediction markets = Forecast Markets - by Thade
Fortunity is a DEX that allows traders to long/short economic variables, making them a tradeable asset. For example, if you believe inflation will go up more than people anticipate, you can go long (with leverage) on Fortunity’s inflation forecast market.
Fortunity’s first market to be launched on their testnet will be inflation forecast markets. Fortunity uses Truflation and Chainlink to power their inflation market. Truflation tracks and updates data as frequently as possible, allowing Fortunity to utilize Chainlink as an oracle for Truflation’s data.
Fortunity was a double winner of the Chainlink Fall 2022 Hackathon. It won the Truflation track, coming first of the 44 projects. It also received Chainlink’s Top-Quality Prize for outstanding implementations against nearly 400 submissions.
Forecast markets are different from prediction markets since prediction markets are used to predict a certain outcome. Whereas with forecast markets you’re able to trade variables.
Prediction market: choose whether next month inflation will be 2%, 2.5%, 3%.
Forecast market: today inflation is 2.56%, but you think shits going to get out of hand next month. You can long inflation and close your position when it hits 3.7%.
Looking at the different categories that are tracked by Truflation, its safe to say there are tons of possible forecast markets that Fortunity could build.
From the docs:
Fortunity can also be used to hedge your portfolios. For example, to protect your portfolio against a recession, you could sell GDP growth on future Forecast Markets, creating a layer of economic insurance against a fall in economic growth.
Forecast Markets combine the concepts of perpetual futures and prediction markets in a new way. By making perpetual futures indexed to a function of the value of the underlying variable, we are able to create an incentive architecture that rewards users for trading in accordance with their beliefs about the future of the variable. In other words, market participants maximize profits if they can correctly forecast the future of the underlying variable.
Their docs do a better job than I can explaining out their forecast markets work. Check them out if you’re interested: https://fortunity.gitbook.io/fortunity-docs/fortunity/about
This video by Fortunity details + demos their product:
Thade’s thoughts
Obviously this is something new that we haven’t seen before. I do wish they would launch on Arbitrum, or another L2 since my experiences on Polygon are terrible. Besides that I think Fortunity has an opportunity to gain some trading volume from sophisticated traders.
This may be one to look out for to see if they get some hype and trading volume. No information on a token yet, but can only assume there will be one. The team won Chainlink’s Fall 2022 Hackathon and also have a section in their docs that doxes their whole team so its definitely a legit project, but also makes me think there won’t be any type of revenue share with their token, which is typically something I look for.
Either way, I’ll be following Fortunity and seeing how things develop and if they can gain some traction with the release of their testnet.
