Our Technical Analysis Reports are designed to offer a global approach to cryptocurrency markets from both a macroeconomic, and a microeconomic perspective. By breaking down major cryptocurrency price action, we tackle different aspects of market analysis to forecast medium and long-term trends in the crypto markets. Data and news are gathered throughout the week and posted every Monday!

In the middle of a sunny August month, while on-chain narrative thrives, crypto market volatility is on an historical all-time low. After a relentless rangy July month, August open is deepening the price compression.

Parallelly DXY's giving strong upside bounces and $BTC is surprisingly holding up decently well. This shows some relative strength. In a context of a rising US dollar, BTC often tends to dump. It needs a total reversal of price control in favor of buyers, or a weak presence/absence of sellers for BTC to experience a significant rise and confirm the imminence of a bull run. As the vast majority of stablecoins are pegged to the US dollar, DXY is always worth watching when it comes to assessing the bias and strength of a forecasted $BTC price movement.

Despite a series of recent bullish fundamental news, such as Blackrock's ETF hallway noises and SEC’s decision to refuse to classify XRP as security (both on July 13th), Link's Cross-chain Interoperability Protocol CCIP (on July 17th), Paypal's stablecoin launching on Ethereum $PYUSD (on August 7th), the market continues to tank under the resistance, but is holding on to short-term supports. In a bull run context, those news would have led to extreme performances, following a “buy the rumor sell the news” scenario. Though amid the current price congestion, the market doesn't seem to be reacting yet.

→ Taking a step back, this $30k cluster we are currently ranging in, is 2022 Summer’s low, making it a very important point of control. It is currently ranging at resistance, after a 9 months bullish trend.

→ Next move will be powerful. We are on the edge of a breakout. The potential of this move can be estimated to 20% whether we're talking about a pump at 30k-36k or a dump at 24k.

Let’s take a closer look.

Resistance -> there’s a lot of confluence in the 30k-36k blue zone with monthly kijun levels (around 34k and 36k) and the Senkou Span B (SSB). The March breakout really attest the return of bulls. The wicks that succeeded it show that buyers are unable to reclaim this SSB level as support, hence acting as an important resistance until proven otherwise.

Range -> from a price action perspective the monthly range boundaries are may’s low and july’s high. Within this range, clear lack of volumes, both boundaries acting as support and resistance for respective bullish / bearish retests. The lagging span reaction will confirm (orange line). We are in the middle of this 24k-34k range

Support -> there’s a lot of confluence in the green zone with the March breakout, a monthly tenkan level (at 24K$, hence acting as an important support until proven otherwise. The wick composing the previous low’s wick needs to be defended by bulls to maintain a bullish structure. This represents around 20% downside from here. Validly loosing this area would leave room for a deeper correction questioning the bullish price structure.

Resistance -> The price of $BTC has been in a very clear uptrend for nine months. Reclaiming a bullish momentum with Kijun and Tenkan confirmed as supports, it scored a 2x since the 15k bottom of November 2022 notwithstanding DXY’s pump. The bulls attempt stopped nearly at 32k, again the SSB level. While S&P500 (among other class of asset) retraced nearly 80% of its bear market correction, this 2x on $BTC is only a 30% recovery from a 77% bear market correction. If $BTC would have retraced the way S&P did, it would sit around $58k. There is a lot of missed upside that Bitcoin could have profited. This gap represents even more upside potential.

Range -> All of those levels can act as possible range boundaries where price might bounce/retest from: SSB<->Tenkan, Tenkan<->Kijun, Kijun<->Higher Low.

Support -> if sellers regain control, the previous higher low around $24k (a 0.382 Fibonnaci retracement) needs to hold for the bullish structure to be conserved. Bulls would need to defend this Kijun / higher low cluster at any cost to prevent more downside. This area is likely meet demand and give a strong bounce and is our invalidation level.