Our Technical Analysis Reports are designed to offer a global approach to cryptocurrency markets from both a macroeconomic, and a microeconomic perspective. By breaking down major cryptocurrency price action, we tackle different aspects of market analysis to forecast medium and long-term trends in the crypto markets. Data and news are gathered throughout the week and posted every Monday!

The start of Q3 was marked by a 20% correction for $BTC over the course of July and August.

After wading through a consolidation range during mid-August, $BTC swept the range’s low on September 11th and is pushing higher since. For the first time in three months, bulls have managed to regain control on low time frames.

Without being a real premonitory sign, or a certain entry signal, it relates to a real return of interest in the crypto market, which is regaining its volatility.

With a notable pump & dump price action around august close and several roundtripping movement on the daily time frame, both bulls and bears seem to be on their toes, without entirely managing to regain control over the other.

As we are only two weeks before Q4 opening, Bitcoin is ramping up to its closest resistance, the $28.000 cluster.

Now that the digesting phase has ended, it seems that we are amidst of a relief bounce phase. Yet, every time it has returned to its context, starting with its kijun level, it was rejected. As soon as buyers try to regain control, sellers manage to regain the upper hand over them: the momentum is at the same time bullish on the monthly time frame while remaining bearish on the weekly time frame.

Our questioning regarding whether we are correcting in an uptrend or resuming a longer downtrend remains yet to be resolved. We are still patiently waiting to see if price prints a lower high or a higher low to confirm the broader trend.

And here we are again, within a busy week, with some Tradfi announcements for the whole working week, starting on Wednesday. To news traders and everyone else, act accordingly!

Taking a glance at $DXY, after a relentless two-month uptrend, scoring a 5.78% performance. On a broader scale, $DXY monthly chart is in an uptrend as both monthly kijun and tenkan levels were reclaimed as support.

This week, it has finally met its next area of resistance, with the starting point of its kumo cloud, the SSA level around 105,4 points.

According to the ichimoku system, the cloud is full of liquidity and far harder to pass through, hence it is likely that price finds an area of resistance somewhere inside it.

Evident supports levels are sitting on the previous lower highs.

Now there are two reactions to watch out this week:

Both reactions will give hints on the momentum’s strength, and on the next movement depth.

Ok ser, so $DXY is approaching resistance, price is likely to retrace if momentum were to shift. But what will it have as an effect on the crypto market?

Well, let’s look at the key Bitcoin price action scenarios from here!

Bull case: The $24.000 level holds as support.

This level composed of several crucial level was retested, and wicked on, but held thus far. Even if it is not compulsory, the tenkan level has yet to be retested, whether it comes up to meet price, or by price coming down to meet this level.

This is a level where bulls need to show strength to preserve its uptrend.

The day they effectively will, price could bounce and offer a Q2 low as first trouble area ($27.000), June’s high as second ($30.000).

The biggest monthly resistance levels still sits at $34.000, the first monthly kijun level and opening of Bitcoin’s monthly resistance cluster.

This high time frame cluster will be essential to define a potential shift of momentum:

Bear case: the $24.000 barrier is breached

The tenkan (red) levels provide a good overview of market’s state. It is the equilibrium point of the last 9 sessions.

The inability for Bitcoin to hold this level as support would really be a bearish trigger. It would mean losing what has been built up since the beginning of 2023.

Monthly lagging span (orange) continues its rejection from 2021 lows and is in the middle of nowhere. We are still looking to monitor its reaction of the crucial $24.000 area. Again, it is a decent place for a high time frame bounce, but if it doesn’t hold, we’d be looking for further fib retracement levels.

From a weekly point of view, there's a lot of diverging points, but the momentum remains bearish.

After mid-August’s sharp sell-off, Bitcoin swept the range’s low, hunting long traders stops before rallying up 9.83% in two weeks, to finally meet its weekly resistance cluster.

Keeping in mind August close impulse move as a warning sign, the bearish thesis on the weekly time frame must remain moderate as long as the weekly resistance cluster hasn’t been reclaimed.

Note that we still are not within a “thin air” scenario, according to the ichimoku system, Bitcoin currently:

After various attempts to reclaim the weekly cloud, the lagging span shyly enters it but is stuck with upper candles.

Now that we had the $25.600 reclaimed as support, the next point of interest sits with the next kijun level of $28.300. If we were to reclaim this point of interest as support, this would be a clear bullish trigger and we could be expecting to break out of this weekly cloud from the top.