Our Technical Analysis Reports are designed to offer a global approach to cryptocurrency markets from both a macroeconomic, and a microeconomic perspective. By breaking down major cryptocurrency price action, we tackle different aspects of market analysis to forecast medium and long-term trends in the crypto markets. Data and news are gathered throughout the week and posted every Monday!

With three days to go before the monthly close, volatility calmed down on crypto market. After a strong move down rejecting from july’s range, Bitcoin price action went full crab mode during the whole week, constantly hunting longs and shorts stop losses.

Bitcoin shyly ranged merely 2% sideways this week as we are just few steps away from the crucial $24k high time frame support. A well merited calm after the strong liquidations of last week. This week exactly happened to be a digesting phase where price ‘need time to absorb strong movements’ having little to no width.

On a macro perspective, DXY's still bouncing and managed to reclaim the crucial 103 points resistance we aborded in last week’s edition. On this fourth attempt the bearish trend resistance failed thus far. The day this uptrend stops will give room for the crypto market to relief. $BTC silently ranging near a high time frame support and coinciding DXY retracement could fuel a good leg up. We shall see.

Our questioning regarding whether we are correcting in an uptrend or resuming a longer downtrend remains yet to be resolved.

The levels of resistance to reclaim are respectively:

Prices have congested during the whole week, settling in boring 5% range ($25.4k-$26.8k). Bitcoin is stuck between its monthly tenkan and SSB levels.

Coming back on our two theses from last week:

The 24k-25k cluster we highlighted is holding thus far, nothing new to report. This is a strong area of confluence that bulls need to defend.

Monthly tenkan level, Summer 2022’s highs, February 23’s high, you name it! There’s a lot of resting liquidity in this area.

Whether or not this zone holds up as a support, the current area represents a good long-term positioning opportunity on its own. It’s a 50% retracement from a nine-months of uptrend, but is that enough?

If Bitcoin ends up losing this area of confluence, lower Fibonacci retracements and liquidity sweeping points will structure reload zones. Especially November high of 22k (0.618 fib’s retracement) and the 19k zone (0.786 fib’s retracement).

On the weekly time frame, the first area of confluence that shall act as resistance is the $28k-29k with weekly tenkan and a SSB level. As it’s clearly visible sky is clear if this area is S/R flipped, but the cloud is thick which indicates a cash-rich zone (with may monthly lows for instance), an area where it’s level easy to establish deep biases. A zone that the lagging span will also need to pass through to confirm the strength of the movement and the viability of this hypothetical uptrend.

The range with weekly tenkan as resistance and kijun as support (the 24500-28500 range) mentioned in last week’s edition is still valid. This could give us a tendential range to trade within the cloud and offer arbitrage opportunity amongst this area of doubt.

A lower range could also settle with $22.5k - $24.5k as boundaries if we end up losing the hanging by thread 24k support.

The current support is the weekly kijun level that sits around $25k7 at the time of writing. This kijun level sits at a 0.382 fib retracement from the ETF candle. We’re still confident in this area meeting demand and giving a bounce, as attests last week candle’s bottom wick. However if buyers don’t manage to control this area, we might get to see the price heading to the monthly tenkan level in September.

If we need to retrace further, the next demand zone in grey in the $22.5k - $23.5k cluster can be in strong demand, where we’ll likely get heavily bought back wicks.