Our Technical Analysis Reports are designed to offer a global approach to cryptocurrency markets from both a macroeconomic, and a microeconomic perspective. By breaking down major cryptocurrency price action, we tackle different aspects of market analysis to forecast medium and long-term trends in the crypto markets. Data and news are gathered throughout the week and posted every Monday!

With eleven days to go before the monthly close, volatility finally came back on crypto market. The over compressed range’s low ended up strongly loosing, $BTC printed a strong -13% candle in the span of few hours.

Starting at 4:30 PM on August 17th, Bitcoin fell 7.5% in 20 MINUTES, erasing $42 billion in market cap in the next hours.

Such a daily movement isn’t to be overlooked. It nearly challenged weekly market structure. The market tends to need time to absorb strong movements and is currently range in low time frames.

Yes, another range!

From a macro perspective, DXY's still bouncing but currently at a crucial resistance around the 103 points level. Its reaction to this important area of interest, the fourth attempt at resistance, will play an important role in the ability for $BTC to reclaim its lost levels. In a context of a rising US dollar, Bitcoin might tend to resume dumping. Contrariwise and in a context of a DXY correction, will have more room for a momentum shift. DXY’s reaction to this resistance will add confluence to the high time frame level of risk to adopt.

→ Momentum has shifted, and Bitcoin started to retrace.

→ The breakout mentioned in last week’s edition took place, in the form of a strong rejection on august 17th. It appears that July’s range acted as a distribution zone.

→ Our bearish target of 24k wasn’t attained as price manage to find local support around 25k.

→ The powerful 20% move we forecasted happened to amount 13%.

After it has printed several months of uptrend, Bitcoin’s extraction from its range opened a downtrend. This fast leg down is offering awaited dip opportunities on high time frames.

Right now, the question is to assess whether we are correcting in an uptrend or resuming a longer downtrend.

Now let’s take a closer look at key-levels.

From a price action perspective, the monthly range’s low dropped. May’s low of 27k was lost, hence supposing to be a resistance until proven otherwise.

The confirmation would come with a 27k bearish retest. Price is currently testing the 25k cluster.

From here two apparent high time frame ranges possibilities:

The 24k-25k cluster we highlighted is an area of confluence that is a strong high time frame resistance from this bear market (grey circles).

This area of confluence around $24k5 is composed of a monthly tenkan level, Summer 2022’s highs, February 23’s high (the monthly doji confirming the bullish break out).

24k-25k is an important support level where price could bounce thus confirming a higher low (on a 0.5 Fibonacci retracement from this 9-month rally).

If we lose this area of confluence, it’s likely we get a stronger correction, hence we’d be looking for Fibonacci retracements.

If it’s not holding, then November high of 22k is the next support (0.618 fib’s retracement).

If it’s still not holding, 19k is the next support (0.786 fib’s retracement).

Crazily as it sounds, the yearly bullish structure is saved as long as the 15k-16k low holds, but there are a lot of levels to bounce from in between.

Dotted lines are showing evident areas of resting liquidity from long traders stop losses that market maker might be willing to take. Those points of interest are important levels that can be S/R flipped.

Current support is $25.9k with the weekly kijun level. Beneath, the next kijun level around $24k (a 0.5 fibonnaci retracement) needs to hold for the bullish structure to be conserved. We’re still confident in this area meeting demand and giving a bounce.

The awaited dip hunt has finally started. But not every dip is to be chased after. This movement was strong and we need market to mature to get entries with insanely better risk ratio, whether it’s by reclaiming current resistance as supports, or bouncing from lower supports.